Where will Novak Djokovic be ranked at the Australian Open

Novak Djokovic has long dominated the tennis scene, but it seems the era of his reign as the No. 1 player in men’s tennis is drawing to a close.

The Serbian superstar ended last year on a high note, clinching the ATP Rankings top spot after securing victories at both the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals. His triumphs included winning three out of four Grand Slam titles, showcasing his ability to fend off emerging talents and remain a formidable force on the tour.

However, 2024 marked a turning point, as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz shared the four Grand Slam titles, leaving Djokovic with just the Olympic gold medal in Paris as his sole tournament win this year. At 37, he has openly admitted to struggling with motivation for events beyond the Grand Slams, which led him to skip the Paris Masters this week.

This absence is significant; since he won that tournament last year, Djokovic will lose the 1,000 ranking points he earned. Speculation is growing that he might also forgo the ATP Finals, even if he qualifies, potentially costing him another 1,300 points. This series of losses could see him drop to seventh, eighth, or even ninth in the year-end rankings.

Such a decline would have major implications for the 2025 Australian Open, where Djokovic could face tough competition against Sinner or Alcaraz as early as the quarter-finals. After losing to Sinner in the semi-finals of this year’s Australian Open, a premature exit next year could push his ranking outside the top 10, making early rounds at Grand Slams increasingly challenging.

This situation raises questions about Djokovic’s future in the sport, but celebrated coach Patrick Mouratoglou believes the Serbian still has the potential to make a comeback. Speaking exclusively to Tennis365 ahead of the UTS Grand Final in December, Mouratoglou emphasized the risks of underestimating a player of Djokovic’s caliber.

“He’s had a rough year, but remember, it came after an extraordinary one,” Mouratoglou pointed out. “Only last year, he won three Grand Slams and reached the final of another. We shouldn’t overlook that.”

Mouratoglou continued, noting Djokovic’s Olympic success this year, where he defeated Alcaraz in the final, and stated, “He’s not far from his peak. When he competes against Sinner and Alcaraz, it’s anyone’s game. I believe he can still win Grand Slams; I’m confident of that.”

Djokovic himself remains optimistic about adding to his illustrious collection of major titles. Mouratoglou highlighted that the primary challenge for Djokovic now lies in sustaining his motivation, especially after the retirements of his main rivals, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

“For Novak, it’s all about motivation,” Mouratoglou remarked. “I get why he’s struggling; his entire career has revolved around surpassing those two. With Rafa retiring, that has posed a challenge for him. He’s achieved what he fought for, and now he needs to find new reasons to keep pushing.”

Mouratoglou concluded with a hopeful perspective: “I hope this tough year will fuel Djokovic’s motivation to come back stronger next year. A competitive resurgence among the three of them would be thrilling, and I can’t wait to see it.”

“When you fight all your life for something and you finally get it, where do you find the motivation?

“So I hope this difficult year is something he will be able to use to feed his motivation and come back next year as good as the previous one because then we’ll have a fight between those three that is going to be unbelievable and I want to see it.”