Tennis legend and seven-time Grand Slam winner Mats Wilander has shared his candid take on why Novak Djokovic might face early turbulence as he transitions into the clay-court swing of the season.
Djokovic is all set to make his seasonal debut on the red dirt at the Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled to start on April 6. While the Serbian maestro has twice lifted the trophy in the glamorous Principality, Monte Carlo hasn’t been his most dominant hunting ground. In fact, his win percentage at this event—72.2% with a 39-15 record—is the lowest among all nine ATP Masters 1000 tournaments.
Despite reaching the semi-finals there last year, Djokovic hasn’t gone all the way at Monte Carlo since 2015, when he last clinched the title. Following Monte Carlo, he’s expected to continue his clay campaign with stops in Madrid and Rome, before heading to Roland Garros for the season’s second Grand Slam.
Interestingly, Djokovic’s last title—his 99th—came on clay during the 2024 Paris Olympics. He also bagged his third Roland Garros crown in 2023, further solidifying his all-surface mastery.
But Wilander believes that clay, despite those milestones, doesn’t quite align with Djokovic’s natural style. Speaking to TNT Sports, the former world No. 1 offered an insightful breakdown of why Djokovic tends to start slow on this surface.
“I think he’s going to run into some problems, and I think that that’s the one thing that we’ve seen with Novak in general, is that the early part of the clay season is not necessarily his best season,” the former world No 1 said.
According to Wilander, Djokovic is a tactical genius on clay, but not inherently a clay-courter in the traditional sense. His shot-making, while adaptable, doesn’t immediately click with the slower, high-bounce nature of clay.
“The reason for that to me is that he’s a great clay-court player without being a clay court player, because of the way that he hits the ball.
“Of course, his forehand is very much like a clay-court forehand with a lot of spin, but he can, of course, flatten it out. That doesn’t really work that well on a clay court.”
When Djokovic first steps onto the clay each year, Wilander argues, there’s a window of vulnerability. In those opening tournaments, even lower-ranked opponents sense opportunity, emboldened by Djokovic’s slower start and still-adjusting rhythm.
“I think for someone like him, when he goes and plays his first few clay-court tournaments, pretty much any person in the draw, I think, feels that they have a chance to play with Novak to make it a close match because of the way that Novak plays.”
He drew a vivid contrast with Rafael Nadal—the undisputed king of clay—whose sheer dominance on the surface is immediate and unmistakable. Nadal, Wilander noted, has a way of overwhelming opponents from the first point, something Djokovic doesn’t typically do in the early clay rounds.
“Compare that to Rafa Nadal, who immediately, as soon as he stepped out on the Monte Carlo tennis courts, he was a completely different animal. His tennis ball was doing completely different things than they were on a hard court.
“The other guy was just going like: ‘Hold on a second. What the hell is going on here? Because I have never seen this top spin before’. With Novak, you don’t get that. He needs two, three weeks before he starts playing well.”
As a result, Wilander emphasized the importance of court time and match repetition for Djokovic to find his groove. It’s not unusual, he said, for Djokovic to struggle initially before finding his stride—often just in time for Rome, where he traditionally sharpens his clay game to perfection.
“That’s why, to me, I think the more time he can spend on a clay court, the better it is because it’s not going to be great the first two, three weeks.
“It never really is for him. But then it starts coming along and in Rome, that’s usually when Novak starts playing his best clay-court tennis, and that’s when we all go: ‘Okay, hold on a second. We didn’t think Novak was going to be a threat this year at the French Open. I take that back. He is now a threat’.”
For Wilander, the formula is simple—Djokovic, even at 37, needs to rack up clay matches, not just for form but for feel. Regardless of outcome, the volume of match play will be the key to unlocking his full potential on the red surface ahead of the French Open.
“So to me, he needs to spend time on a clay court, and he needs to play as many matches, win or lose, that he can before the French Open, despite his age.”
As the clay season gets underway, all eyes will be on Djokovic—not just to see if he can hit his stride in time, but to witness whether he can once again defy the surface that has often tested him most.